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Arthritis Research & Therapy

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Arthritis Research & Therapy's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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The Cartilage Thickness score (CTh-Score) Captures High-resolution Cartilage Thickness Patterns Associated with Osteoarthritis Onset, Progression, and Knee Replacement: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Margain, P.; Favre, J.; Omoumi, P.

2026-04-15 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350838 medRxiv
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Objective To evaluate the Cartilage Thickness Score (CTh-Score) as a quantitative measure of cartilage damage severity by assessing its association with three osteoarthritis (OA) milestones and comparing its performance with conventional morphometric measures (radiographic minimum joint space width (JSW) and regional average cartilage thickness). Methods Data were obtained from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) and the publicly available OAI CTh-Maps and CTh-Score dataset. Three matched case-control designs were used to represent major OA milestones: (i) incident radiographic OA onset, (ii) combined pain and structural progression, and (iii) knee replacement (KR) in the coming 2 years. Progression subjects were extracted from the FNIH Biomarkers Consortium cohort. Cases and controls were compared at 4 years (T-4Y), 2 years (T-2Y), and 0 years (T0) before the milestone. MRI-based CTh-Score and regional average cartilage thickness, as well as JSW, were analyzed cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Associations with case status were assessed using adjusted logistic regression models, and responsiveness was evaluated using longitudinal change and standardized response means. Results The onset cohort included 307 matched case-control pairs, the progression cohort 164 cases and 369 controls, and the KR cohort 81 cases and 324 controls. Across all three study designs, the CTh-Score significantly differentiated cases from controls at all timepoints. In the onset cohort, the CTh-Score was higher in future cases than controls at T-4Y (16.2 vs 12.6, p=0.007), T-2Y (23.5 vs 16.7, p<0.001), and T0 (39.8 vs 18.6, p<0.001), whereas JSW and regional thickness measures showed limited or later discrimination. Similar findings were observed for progression (43.2 vs 33.0 at T-4Y; p<0.001) and KR (55.4 vs 46.1 at T-4Y; p=0.02) cohorts. Longitudinally, CTh-Score changes differentiated cases from controls earlier and more consistently than JSW or regional average thickness, and its responsiveness was consistently the highest across OA milestones and time intervals. In adjusted models, the CTh-Score was independently associated with all outcomes at T-4Y and T-2Y, with odds ratios per standard deviation increase ranging from 1.3 to 2.2. Conclusion The CTh-Score captures high-resolution cartilage thickness patterns associated with OA onset, progression, and future knee replacement, outperforming conventional morphometric measures in early discrimination, responsiveness, and predictive association. These findings support CTh-Score as a sensitive quantitative marker of cartilage damage severity across the OA continuum.

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BMI and Varus Malalignment Compound to Define a High-Risk Phenotype for Compartment-Specific Knee Osteoarthritis Progression

White, M. S.; Kogan, F.; Delp, S. L.; Chu, C. R.; Sherman, S. L.; Pai S, A.; Gold, G. E.; Chaudhari, A. S.; Gatti, A. A.

2026-04-17 orthopedics 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350819 medRxiv
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Objectives: Knee osteoarthritis (KOA) is a leading cause of disability, yet which patients will experience structural decline remains unclear. Body mass index (BMI) and lower limb alignment are established risk factors for KOA, but their independent and interactive effects on compartment-specific cartilage loss and total knee replacement (TKR) have not been characterized at scale. Methods: We analyzed 5,832 limbs from 3,016 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative followed over 7 years. Cartilage thickness in the weight-bearing medial and lateral femur and tibia was quantified, and lower limb alignment was measured using hip-knee-ankle (HKA) angle obtained from full-limb radiographs. Linear mixed-effects models estimated the independent and interactive effects of BMI and lower limb alignment on longitudinal cartilage thinning, and mixed-effects logistic regression modeled TKR risk. Results: In the medial compartment, BMI and varus alignment interacted multiplicatively, with their combined effect exceeding the sum of independent contributions (femur: p = 0.011; tibia: p < 0.001). At +10 kg/m2 BMI and +10 degrees varus, the rate of medial femur cartilage thinning was 243.5% faster than the reference rate. In the lateral compartment, BMI and valgus alignment were independently associated with faster cartilage thinning, with no significant interaction. TKR risk increased exponentially with HKA deviation (odds ratio [OR] = 1.38 per 1 degree; ~five-fold at 5 degrees malalignment) but was not associated with BMI. Conclusion: BMI and lower limb alignment influence structural KOA progression through compartment-specific pathways. The multiplicative interaction in the medial compartment identifies high BMI combined with varus malalignment as a discrete high-risk phenotype, with implications for clinical risk stratification and disease-modifying intervention design.

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Transcriptomic Profiling in Skeletal Muscle Identifies Associations With Knee Osteoarthritis: the Study of Muscle, Mobility and Aging (SOMMA)

Evans, D. S.; Mansfield, T. A.; Many, G. M.; Sagendorf, T. J.; Farsijani, S.; Goodpaster, B. H.; Sparks, L. M.; Lane, N. E.

2026-04-16 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350906 medRxiv
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Objectives. The association between skeletal muscle gene expression and knee osteoarthritis (OA) was examined among older adult participants of the Study of Muscle, Mobility and Aging (SOMMA). Methods. Inclusion criteria included knee radiographs and bulk RNA sequencing (RNAseq) in vastus lateralis muscle, resulting in 523 participants (56% female). Radiographic knee OA was determined by Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades. Differential gene expression was analyzed using a control group (KL [&le;] 1, n = 326) and two nested case groups: (a) KL [&ge;] 2 (n = 197), (b) KL [&ge;] 3 (n = 112). Results. Compared with controls, there were 27 and 41 genes associated (FDR [&le;] 0.05) with KL [&ge;] 2 and KL [&ge;] 3, respectively, and 16 genes significantly associated in both contrasts. For 15 of the 16 genes, the association magnitude was larger with more severe OA (KL [&ge;] 3). Genes associated in both contrasts included brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and interferon regulatory factor-2 (IRF2). Gene sets enriched in KL [&ge;] 2 and KL [&ge;] 3 contrasts included DNA repair and branched chain amino acid (BCAA) catabolism. Conclusions. Our results in older adult SOMMA participants indicate that knee OA is associated with genes and pathways expressed in skeletal muscle that are involved in pain sensitization, BCAA catabolism, muscle function preservation, calcium transport and storage, inflammation, and extracellular matrix remodeling. Additional longitudinal studies will be needed to determine how these genes could affect the progression of knee OA.

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PPI-Refractory GERD in Systemic Sclerosis Is Driven by Distinct Esophageal and Gastric Motility Abnormalities

Alcala-Gonzalez, L. G.; Guillen-del-Castillo, A.; Felix Tellez, F. A.; Aguilar, A.; Barber-Caselles, C.; Malagelada, C.; Polo Figueras, L.; Triginer, L.; Codina-Clavaguera, C.; Hughes, M.; Simeon-Aznar, C. P.; Serra, J.; McMahan, Z. H.

2026-04-17 rheumatology 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350585 medRxiv
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BackgroundGastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is highly prevalent in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and frequently persists despite proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy. However, the mechanisms underlying PPI-refractory GERD in SSc remain incompletely understood. MethodsWe conducted a singlel7lcentre, retrospective study of adults with SSc who underwent ambulatory pH-multichannel intraluminal impedance (pH/MII) monitoring while receiving twicel7ldaily PPI therapy (2021-2025). Esophageal motility (highl7lresolution manometry, HREM) and gastric emptying scintigraphy were integrated to examine associations between gastro-esophageal dysmotility and reflux phenotypes. ResultsThirty patients were included, of whom 67% had PPI-refractory reflux symptoms and 33% were undergoing pre-lung transplantation evaluation. Refractory GERD was present in 29/30 patients (97%) based on Lyon 2.0 classification, with conclusive evidence in 53% and borderline evidence in 43%. Esophageal dysmotility was identified in 80%, most commonly absent contractility (67%), and was associated with impaired reflux clearance, reflected by longer acid clearance times (2.20 [1.15-3.75] vs 1.15 [0.43-1.90] min) and prolonged reflux episode duration (16.60 [4.38-40.63] vs 1.95 [0.53-20.43] min). Gastric dysmotility was identified in 60.7% and was associated with an increased reflux episode burden (51.00 [30.00-81.50] vs 25.00 [21.00-54.00] episodes/24h). ConclusionsPPIl7lrefractory GERD is nearly universal in this SSc cohort and reflects heterogeneous, quantifiable abnormalities across the foregut, including impaired esophageal clearance and increased reflux burden related to gastric retention. These findings support integrated physiologic evaluation to define reflux mechanisms, inform risk stratification (including lung transplantation), and guide targeted, mechanism-based therapies beyond acid suppression.

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Comprehensive Immunophenotyping of Monocytes and Dendritic Cells Suggests Distinct Pathophysiology in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and Long COVID

Petrov, S. I.; Bozhkova, M.; Ivanovska, M.; Kalfova, T.; Dudova, D.; Todorova, Y.; Dimitrova, R.; Murdjeva, M.; Taskov, H.; Nikolova, M.; Maes, M.

2026-04-12 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350613 medRxiv
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Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) and long COVID are complex chronic conditions that often follow infectious triggers with overlapping clinical features but poorly defined pathophysiological relationships. This study aimed to identify disease-specific immune signatures through multiparameter immunophenotyping of monocytes, dendritic cells, and T-cell subsets. A total of 207 participants were included (ME/CFS: n = 103; long COVID: n = 63; healthy controls: n = 41). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were analyzed using multiparameter flow cytometry. Statistical analyses included non-parametric testing, age-adjusted ANCOVA, correlation network analysis, and principal component analysis (PCA). Long COVID was characterized by increased M2-like monocyte polarization, elevated CD80 expression across monocyte subsets, expansion of dendritic cells, and reduced expression of activation markers, indicating persistent immune activation with features of immune exhaustion. In contrast, ME/CFS exhibited reduced costimulatory molecule expression, impaired CCR7-mediated immune cell trafficking, and less coordinated activation patterns, consistent with a state of immune suppression. Correlation network analysis revealed more extensive and integrated immune interactions in long COVID, while PCA identified distinct immunophenotypic components and enabled moderate discrimination between the two conditions. These findings demonstrate that ME/CFS and long COVID are characterized by distinct immune profiles, supporting the concept of divergent immunopathological mechanisms. The identified signatures may contribute to biomarker development and guide targeted therapeutic approaches.

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Plasma Neurofilament Light Chain and Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein in Psychiatric Disorders: A Large-Scale Normative Modeling Study

Jacobsen, A. M.; Quednow, B. B.; Bavato, F.

2026-04-12 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350391 medRxiv
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ImportanceBlood neurofilament light chain (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) are entering clinical use in neurology as markers of neuroaxonal and astrocytic injury, but their utility in psychiatry is unclear. ObjectiveTo determine whether psychiatric diagnoses are associated with altered plasma NfL and GFAP levels. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis population-based study examined plasma NfL and GFAP among 47,495 participants from the UK Biobank (54.0% female; 93.5% White; mean [SD] age 56.8 [8.2] years) who provided blood samples and sociodemographic and clinical data between 2006 and 2010. Normative modeling was applied to assess associations between 7 lifetime psychiatric diagnostic categories and deviations from expected NfL and GFAP levels, while accounting for neurological diagnoses, cardiometabolic burden, and substance use. Data were analyzed between July 2025 and March 2026. Main Outcomes and MeasuresDeviations in plasma NfL and GFAP levels from normative predictions. ResultsRelative to the reference population, plasma NfL levels were higher among individuals with bipolar disorder (d=0.20; 95% CI, 0.03-0.37; p=0.03), recurrent depressive disorder (d=0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.38; p=0.009), and depressive episodes (d=0.06; 95% CI, 0.02-0.10; p=0.01), lower among individuals with anxiety disorders (d=-0.07; 95% CI, -0.12 to -0.02; p=0.008), but did not differ in schizophrenia spectrum, stress-related, or other psychiatric disorders. Plasma GFAP levels were not elevated in any psychiatric disorders. Variability in NfL levels was greater among individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (variance ratio [VR]=1.30; p=0.005), depressive episodes (VR=1.06; p=0.006), and anxiety disorders (VR=1.08; p=0.005). Variability in GFAP levels was increased only in anxiety disorders (VR=1.08; p=0.01). Plasma NfL levels exceeding percentile-based normative thresholds were more common among individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, bipolar disorder, recurrent depressive disorder, and depressive episodes. Neurological diagnoses, cardiometabolic burden, and substance use were associated with plasma NfL and GFAP levels. Conclusions and RelevanceThis study provides population-level evidence of plasma NfL elevation in bipolar and depressive disorders and increased variability in schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar and depressive disorders, supporting its potential as a biomarker in psychiatry and informing its ongoing neurological applications. Plasma GFAP levels, in contrast, were largely unaltered across psychiatric disorders. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSAre plasma neurofilament light chain (NfL) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) levels altered in psychiatric disorders? FindingsIn this cohort study including 47,495 individuals, normative modeling revealed that plasma NfL levels were elevated in bipolar and depressive disorders, whereas plasma GFAP levels were not elevated in any psychiatric disorder. Plasma NfL levels also showed higher variability in schizophrenia spectrum, bipolar, and depressive disorders. MeaningPlasma NfL shows distinct alterations in schizophrenia spectrum and affective disorders, supporting its further investigation as a biomarker in clinical psychiatry and highlighting the need to consider psychiatric comorbidity in neurological applications.

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A Replicable NeuroMark Template for Whole-Brain SPECT Reveals Data-Driven Perfusion Networks and Their Alterations in Schizophrenia

Harikumar, A.; Baker, B.; Amen, D.; Keator, D.; Calhoun, V. D.

2026-04-12 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26349985 medRxiv
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Single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is a highly specialized imaging modality that enables measurement of regional cerebral perfusion and, in particular, resting cerebral blood flow (rCBF). Recent technological advances have improved SPECT quantification and reliability, making it increasingly useful for studying rCBF abnormalities and perfusion network alterations in psychiatric and neurological disorders. To characterize large scale functional organization in SPECT data, data driven decomposition methods such as independent component analysis (ICA) have been used to extract covarying perfusion patterns that map onto interpretable brain networks. Blind ICA provides a data driven approach to estimate these networks without strong prior assumptions. More recently, a hybrid approach that leverages spatial priors to guide a spatially constrained ICA (sc ICA) have been used to fully automate the ICA analysis while also providing participant-specific network estimates. While this has been reliably demonstrated in fMRI with the NeuroMark template, there is currently no comparable SPECT template. A SPECT template would enable automatic estimation of functional SPECT networks with participant-specific expressions that correspond across participants and studies. The current study introduces a new replicable NeuroMark SPECT template for estimating canonical perfusion covariance patterns (networks). We first identify replicable SPECT networks using blind ICA applied to two large sample SPECT datasets. We then demonstrate the use of the resulting template by applying sc-ICA to an independent schizophrenia dataset. In sum, this work presents and shares the first NeuroMark SPECT template and demonstrating its utility in an independent cohort, providing a scalable and robust framework for network-based analyses.

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Gamma Neuromodulation Provides Therapeutic Potential in Neuropsychiatry: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Xu, M.; Philips, R.; Singavarapu, A.; Zheng, M.; Martin, D.; Nikolin, S.; Mutz, J.; Becker, A.; Firenze, R.; Tsai, L.-H.

2026-04-12 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350641 medRxiv
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Background: Gamma oscillation dysfunction has been implicated in neuropsychiatric disorders. Restoring gamma oscillations via brain stimulation represents an emerging therapeutic approach. However, the strength of its clinical effects and treatment moderators remain unclear. Method: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the clinical effects of gamma neuromodulation in neuropsychiatric disorders. A literature search for controlled trials using gamma stimulation was performed across five databases up until April 2025. Effect sizes were calculated using Hedge's g. Separate analyses using the random-effects model examined the clinical effects in schizophrenia (SZ), major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder, and autism spectrum disorder. For SZ and MDD, subgroup analyses evaluated the effects of stimulation modality, stimulation frequency, treatment duration, and pulses per session. Result: Fifty-six studies met the inclusion criteria (NSZ = 943, NMDD = 916, NBD = 175, NASD = 232). In SZ, gamma stimulation was associated with improvements in positive (k = 10, g = -0.60, p < 0.001), negative (k = 12, g = -0.37, p = 0.03), depressive (k = 8, g = -0.39, p < 0.001), anxious symptoms (k = 5, g = -0.59, p < 0.001), and overall cognitive function (k = 7, g = 0.55, p < 0.001). Stimulation frequency and treatment duration moderated therapeutic effects. In MDD, reductions in depressive symptoms were observed (k = 23, g = -0.34, p = 0.007). Conclusion: Gamma neuromodulation showed moderate therapeutic benefits in SZ and MDD. Substantial heterogeneity likely reflects protocol differences, highlighting the need for well-powered future trials.

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Early-life adversity and markers of vulnerability to enduring pain in youth: a multimodal neuroimaging study of the ABCD cohort

Quide, Y.; Lim, T. E.; Gustin, S. M.

2026-04-11 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350367 medRxiv
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BackgroundEarly-life adversity (ELA) is a risk factor for enduring pain in youth and is associated with alterations in brain morphology and function. However, it remains unclear whether ELA-related neurobiological changes contribute to the development of enduring pain in early adolescence. MethodsUsing data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, we examined multimodal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers in children assessed at baseline (ages 9-11 years) and at 2-year follow-up (ages 11-13 years). ELA exposure was defined at baseline to maximise temporal separation between early adversity and later enduring pain. Participants with enduring pain at follow-up (n = 322) were compared to matched pain-free controls (n = 644). Structural MRI, diffusion MRI (fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity), and resting-state functional connectivity data were analysed. Linear models tested main effects of enduring pain, ELA, and their interaction on brain metrics, controlling for relevant covariates. ResultsELA exposure was associated with smaller caudate and nucleus accumbens volumes, and reduced surface area of the left rostral middle frontal gyrus. No significant effects of enduring pain or ELA-by-enduring pain interaction were observed across grey matter, white matter, or functional connectivity measures. ConclusionsELA was associated with alterations in fronto-striatal regions in late childhood, but these changes were not linked to enduring pain in early adolescence. These findings suggest that ELA-related neurobiological alterations may represent early markers of vulnerability rather than concurrent correlates of enduring pain. Longitudinal follow-up is needed to determine whether these alterations contribute to later chronic pain risk.

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Racial Differences in Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia: Examining the Role of Defeatist Beliefs and Discrimination

Spann, D. J.; Hall, L. M.; Moussa-Tooks, A.; Sheffield, J. M.

2026-04-11 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350400 medRxiv
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BackgroundNegative symptoms are core features of schizophrenia that relate strongly to functional impairment, yet interventions targeting these symptoms remain largely ineffective. Emerging theoretical work highlights how environmental factors may shape and maintain negative symptoms. Although racial disparities in schizophrenia diagnosis among Black Americans are well documented and linked to racial stress and psychosis, the impact of racial stress on negative symptoms has not been examined. This study provides an initial test of a novel theory proposing that racial stress - here measured by racial discrimination - influences negative symptom severity through exacerbation of negative cognitions about the self, particularly defeatist performance beliefs (DPB). Study DesignParticipants diagnosed with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder (SSD) (N = 208; 80 Black, 128 White) completed the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), the Defeatist Beliefs Scale, and self-report measures of subjective racial and ethnic discrimination (Racial and Ethnic Minority Scale and General Ethnic Discrimination Scale). Relationships among variables were tested using linear regression and mediation analysis. Study ResultsBlack participants exhibited significantly greater total and experiential negative symptoms than White participants with no group difference in DPB. Racial discrimination explained 46% of the relationship between race and negative symptoms. Among Black participants, higher DPB were associated with greater negative symptom severity. Discrimination was positively related to both DPB and negative symptoms. DPB partially mediated the relationship between discrimination and negative symptoms. ConclusionsFindings suggest that racial stress contributes to negative symptom severity via defeatist beliefs among Black individuals, highlighting potential targets for culturally informed interventions.

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The effect of sedentary behaviour and physical activity on 1719 diseases: a Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS)

Xu, J.; Parker, R. M. A.; Bowman, K.; Clayton, G. L.; Lawlor, D. A.

2026-04-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350507 medRxiv
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Background Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, such as leisure screen time (LST), and lower levels of physical activity are associated with diseases across multiple body systems which contribute to a large global health burden. Whether these associations are causal is unclear. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the causal effects of higher LST (given greater power) and, secondarily, lower moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA), on a wide range of diseases in a hypothesis-free approach. Methods A two-sample Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study was conducted for the main analyses. Genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were first selected as exposure genetic instruments for LST (hours of television watched per day; 117 SNPs) and MVPA (higher vs. lower; 18 SNPs) based on the genome-wide significant threshold (p < 5*10-8) from the largest relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS). For disease outcomes, we used summary results from FinnGen GWAS, including 1,719 diseases defined by hospital discharge International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes in 453,733 European participants. For the main analyses, we used the inverse-variance weighting method with a Bonferroni corrected p-value of p [&le;] 3.47*10-4. Sensitivity analyses included Steiger filtering, MR-Egger and weighted median analyses, and data from UK Biobank were used to explore replication. Findings Genetically predicted higher LST was associated with increased risk of 87 (5.1% of the 1,719) diseases. Most of these diseases were in musculoskeletal and connective tissue (n=37), genitourinary (n=12) and respiratory (n=8) systems. Genetic liability to lower MVPA was associated with six diseases: three in musculoskeletal and connective tissue and genitourinary systems (with greater risk of these diseases also identified with higher LST), and three in respiratory and genitourinary systems. Sensitivity analyses largely supported the main analyses. Results replicated in UK Biobank, where data available. Conclusions Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, and lower levels of physical activity, causally increase the risk of diseases across multiple body systems, making them promising targets for reducing multimorbidity.

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Years Lived without Chronic Diseases after Statutory Retirement - A Register Linkage Follow-up Study in Finland 2000-2021

Pietilainen, O.; Salonsalmi, A.; Rahkonen, O.; Lahelma, E.; Lallukka, T.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.12.26348889 medRxiv
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Objectives: Longer lifespans lead to longer time on retirement, despite the efforts to raise the retirement age. Therefore, it is important to study how the retirement years can be spent without diseases. This study examined socioeconomic and sociodemographic differences in healthy years spent on retirement. Methods: We followed a cohort of retired Finnish municipal employees (N=4231, average follow-up 15.4 years) on national administrative registers for major chronic diseases: cancer, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, mental disorders, and alcohol-related disorders. Median healthy years on retirement and age at first occurrence of illness (ICD-10 and ATC-based) in each combination of sex, occupational class, and age of retirement were predicted using Royston-Parmar models. Prevalence rates for each diagnostic group were calculated. Results: Most healthy years on retirement were spent by women having worked in semi-professional jobs who retired at age 60-62 (median predicted healthy years 11.6, 95% CI 10.4-12.7). The least healthy years on retirement were spent by men having worked in routine non-manual jobs who retired after age 62 (median predicted healthy years 6.5, 95% CI 4.4-9.5). Diabetes was slightly more common among lower occupational class women, and dementia among manual working women having retired at age 60-62. Discussion: Healthy years on retirement are not enjoyed equally by women and men and those who retire early or later. Policies aiming to increase the retirement age should consider the effects of these gaps on retirees and the equitability of those effects.

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Policy Levers of HIV Control: Targeted Service Coverage, Financial Protection, and Estimated New HIV Infections in Southeast Asia, 2013-2022

Hung, J.; Smith, A.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350590 medRxiv
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The global ambition to end the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic requires understanding which system-level policy levers, enacted under the framework of Universal Health Coverage (UHC), are most effective in achieving both transmission reduction and diagnostic coverage. This study addresses an important evidence gap by quantifying the within-country association between measurable UHC policy indicators and the estimated rate of new HIV infections across nine Southeast Asian countries between 2013 and 2022. Employing a Fixed-Effects panel data methodology, the analysis controls for time-invariant national heterogeneity, ensuring reliable estimates of policy impact. We found that marginal changes in total current health expenditure (CHE) as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) were not statistically significantly associated with changes in HIV incidence. However, increases in the UHC Infectious Disease Service Coverage Index were statistically significantly associated with concurrent reductions in HIV incidence (p < 0.001), suggesting the efficacy of targeted service implementation as the principal driver of curbing new HIV infections. In addition, the UHC Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Service Coverage Index exhibited a statistically significant positive association with changes in HIV incidence (p < 0.01), which is interpreted as a vital surveillance artefact resulting from expanded detection and reporting of previously undiagnosed HIV cases. Furthermore, out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditure as a percentage of CHE showed a counter-intuitive negative association with changes in HIV incidence (p < 0.01), suggesting this metric primarily shows ongoing indirect cost burdens on the established patient cohort, or, alternatively, presents a diagnostic access barrier that results in lower case finding. These findings suggest that policymakers should prioritise investment in targeted infectious disease service efficacy over aggregate fiscal commitment and utilise integrated sexual health platforms for strengthened HIV surveillance and case identification.

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Invasive cervical cancers after an HPV-negative test: insights from screening histories

Hassan, S. S.; Nordqvist-Kleppe, S.; Asinger, N.; Wang, J.; Dillner, J.; Arroyo Muhr, L. S.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350679 medRxiv
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Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is the primary method for cervical cancer screening, and a negative HPV test is associated with a very low subsequent risk of invasive cancer. Nevertheless, a small number of cervical cancers are diagnosed following an HPV-negative testing result, posing challenges within HPV-based screening pathways. Using nationwide Swedish registry data of HPV testing, we identified women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer between 2019 and 2024 and reconstructed HPV testing histories from the National Cervical Screening Registry (NKCx). The most recent HPV test prior to diagnosis was defined as the index test, and longitudinal HPV testing trajectories were classified among women with an HPV-negative index test. Of 3,000 women diagnosed with invasive cancer, 243 (8.1%) had an HPV-negative index test. These women were older at diagnosis and more frequently diagnosed at advanced stages compared with women with an HPV-positive index test. Most HPV-negative index tests (66.3%) were performed in the peri-diagnostic period (+/- 30 days). Among women with an HPV-negative index test, 52.7% (128/243) had no prior HPV testing recorded, while the remainder had consistently HPV-negative histories (33.3%, 83/243) or evidence of prior HPV positivity before the index negative test (14%, 32/243). Possible recurrent HPV positivity following an intervening negative test was rare (0.4%, 1/243). HPV-negative screening results preceding invasive cancer reflect heterogeneous screening histories and cannot be explained solely by test failure. Findings highlighting the importance of reaching women earlier in screening programs and show that fluctuating HPV detectability is rare.

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Perceived vs. actual navigation ability: Differences between autistic and typically developing children

McKeown, D. J.; Cruzado, O. S.; Colombo, G.; Angus, D. J.; Schinazi, V. R.

2026-04-13 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350542 medRxiv
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PurposeNavigational ability develops throughout childhood alongside the maturation of brain regions supporting egocentric and allocentric processing. In Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), atypical hippocampal development may impact flexible spatial memory; however, findings on navigational ability in autistic children remain inconsistent. This study aimed to compare both objective and perceived navigation ability in children with ASD and typically developing (TD) peers. MethodTwenty-six children with high-functioning ASD and twenty-five age- and gender-matched TD children (M_age = 12.04 years, SD = 1.64) completed a battery of navigational tasks from the Spatial Performance Assessment for Cognitive Evaluation (SPACE), including Path Integration, Egocentric Pointing, Mapping, Associative Memory, and Perspective Taking. Perceived navigation ability was assessed using the Santa Barbara Sense of Direction (SBSOD) scale. ResultsNo significant group differences were observed across any objective navigation tasks. However, children with ASD reported significantly lower perceived navigation ability compared to TD peers. ConclusionThese findings suggest a dissociation between perceived and actual navigational ability in ASD. By early adolescence, objective navigation performance appears intact, potentially reflecting sufficient maturation of underlying neural systems or the presence of compensatory mechanisms. The results underscore the importance of incorporating objective, task-based measures when assessing cognitive abilities in autistic populations.

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Implementation of point-of-care screening for Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis among pregnant women in South Africa: a mixed-methods process evaluation of the Philani Ndiphile trial

Shaetonhodi, N. G.; De Vos, L.; Babalola, C.; de Voux, A.; Joseph Davey, D.; Mdingi, M.; Peters, R. P. H.; Klausner, J. D.; Medina-Marino, A.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350414 medRxiv
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BackgroundCurable sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis, remain highly prevalent among pregnant women in South Africa. Despite poor diagnostic performance in pregnancy, syndromic management remains standard care. Point-of-care (POC) screening enables aetiological diagnosis and same-visit treatment but is not yet included in national guidelines. We conducted a mixed-methods process evaluation to examine determinants of antenatal POC STI screening implementation in public facilities. MethodsThis evaluation was embedded within the three-arm Philani Ndiphile randomized trial (March 2021-February 2025) across four public clinics in the Eastern Cape. Screening used a near-POC, electricity-dependent nucleic acid amplification test with a 90-minute turnaround time. Reach, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance were assessed using the RE-AIM framework. Quantitative indicators included uptake of screening, treatment, and follow-up attendance. Qualitative data included in-depth interviews with 20 pregnant women and five focus group discussions with 21 research staff and government healthcare workers. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research guided qualitative analysis. Findings were integrated using narrative weaving. ResultsScreening uptake was high (99.0%), with treatment coverage of 95.2% at baseline and 93.5% at repeat screening. Same-day treatment was lower (50.7% and 69.8%) and varied substantially by facility, reflecting operational constraints including turnaround time, patient volume, infrastructure, and electricity. Attendance was higher when screening was integrated into routine ANC. Women valued screening for infant health, while providers recognised advantages over syndromic management but highlighted workforce, resource, and maintenance constraints. Socioeconomic factors, including transport costs, hunger, and work commitments, influenced retention and waiting. ConclusionsAntenatal POC STI screening was acceptable and achieved high treatment coverage in a research setting. However, same-day treatment was constrained by operational requirements of the testing platform. Scale-up will require workflow integration, strengthened health system capacity, and faster diagnostics suited to routine antenatal care. Key MessagesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSSyndromic management remains standard antenatal care in many low-resource settings despite failing to capture up to 89% of infections that remain asymptomatic. Point-of-care aetiological screening has demonstrated feasibility, acceptability, and potential clinical benefit in research settings, yet has not been widely adopted into national policy. Limited evidence exists on the health system requirements and contextual determinants influencing scale-up within routine public facilities. What this study addsThis mixed-methods process evaluation demonstrates high uptake and treatment coverage of antenatal POC STI screening in a trial setting, while identifying facility-level, structural, and socioeconomic factors shaping same-day treatment and retention. We show that implementation success varies substantially across clinics and depends on assay characteristics, workflow integration, human resources, infrastructure reliability, and follow-up capacity. How this study might affect research, practice or policyThese findings provide implementation-relevant evidence to inform national policy deliberations on integrating POC STI screening into antenatal care. Sustainable scale-up will require context-adapted delivery models, strengthened workforce and supply systems, faster diagnostics, and alignment with existing ANC workflows to ensure equitable and durable impact.

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Caregiver knowledge, its determinants and its association with infant and young child feeding and water, sanitation, and hygiene practices among children with severe acute malnutrition in agrarian and pastoral settings of Ethiopia

Areb, M.; Huybregts, L.; Tamiru, D.; Toure, M.; Biru, B.; Fall, T.; Haddis, A.; Belachew, T.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350480 medRxiv
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BackgroundThis study aimed to assess caregiver knowledge of Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF), child health, severe acute malnutrition (SAM) screening, and Community-Based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM), its determinants, and associations with IYCF/ WaSH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) practices among caregivers of children 6-59 months with SAM in Ethiopian agrarian and pastoralist settings. MethodData were from the baseline survey of the R-SWITCH Ethiopia cluster-randomized controlled trial (cRCT), which screened [~]28,000 children aged 6-59 months and identified 686 SAM cases. Caregiver knowledge was evaluated using a validated 32-item questionnaire (Cronbachs for internal reliability) and analyzed via linear mixed-effects and Poisson regression models in Stata 17. ResultsCaregiver knowledge was positively associated with improved IYCF/WaSH practices among children aged 6-23 months with SAM, including higher minimum dietary diversity (MDD: IRR=1.50), minimum acceptable diet (MAD: IRR=1.63), and reduced zero vegetable/fruit intake (IRR=0.77), as well as MDD in children aged 24-59 months, improved water access (IRR=1.19), water treatment (IRR=2.02), and handwashing stations (IRR=1.41). Literate ({beta} = 4.1; 95% CI:1.5-6.6, p= 0.016), pregnant({beta} = 4.4; 95% CI:0.9-7.8, 0.018), having child weighing at a health post/ health center ({beta} = 8.9;95% CI:3.5-14.2,p [&le;] 0.001), and higher household wealth index ({beta} = 11.8;95% CI:3.6-20.1,p= 0.005) were associated with higher knowledge, while possible depression ({beta} = -0.3;95% CI: -0.5 to 0.0, p= 0.015) was associated with lower knowledge. ConclusionCaregiver knowledge determines better IYCF/WaSH practices among children aged 6-59 months with SAM. Literacy, pregnancy, having child weighing at a health post or health center, and greater household wealth were associated with caregivers knowledge, whereas possible depression was associated with lower knowledge. Integrating context-specific caregiver education and mental health support into CMAM, GMP(Growth monitoring and promotion), and primary care services could enhance feeding/WaSH practices in Ethiopia.

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Global determinants of vector-targeted insecticide use in public health: a modeling and mapping analysis

Heffernan, P. M.; van den Berg, H.; Yadav, R. S.; Murdock, C. C.; Rohr, J. R.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350404 medRxiv
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BackgroundInsecticides remain the cornerstone of mosquito vector control for malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases, yet global patterns of deployment and their socioeconomic and environmental drivers are poorly characterized. Understanding where and why insecticides are used is essential for better targeting control efforts and ensuring they are effective, equitable, and efficient. MethodsWe analyzed annual country-level insecticide-use data from 122 countries (1990-2019), reported as standard spray coverage for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), residual spraying (RS), spatial spraying (SS), and larviciding (LA). Generalized linear mixed models and hurdle models quantified associations between deployment and disease incidence, human development index (HDI), human population density, temperature, and precipitation. Models were evaluated using repeated cross-validation and applied to generate downscaled predictions of insecticide use at subnational administrative region level 2 (ADM2) globally. FindingsInsecticide deployment increased with malaria and dengue incidence, but this response was substantially stronger in higher-HDI countries, indicating that deployment depends on socioeconomic capacity as well as disease burden that leads to weaker scaling in lower-resource settings. Intervention types exhibited distinct patterns; ITN use tracked malaria burden, whereas infrastructure-intensive approaches (e.g., RS and SS) were concentrated in higher-HDI settings and increased with Aedes-borne disease incidence. Downscaled ADM2-level maps uncovered substantial within-country heterogeneity that is obscured at the national scale, highlighting regions where predicted deployment remains low relative to disease risk across sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of Latin America. InterpretationGlobal insecticide deployment reflects not only epidemiological need but also economic and logistical capacity, creating mismatches between risk and control. High-resolution mapping can support more equitable allocation of interventions, guide insecticide resistance stewardship, and improve strategic planning as climate and urbanization reshape mosquito-borne disease risk.

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Predictors of intention to use mobile health apps for comprehensive sexuality education among young people in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a correlational study

Maneraguha, F. K.; Cote, J.; Bourbonnais, A.; Arbour, C.; Chagnon, M.; Hatem, M.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350561 medRxiv
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Background Comprehensive sexuality education (CSE) is essential to the health and well-being of young people. In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where more than 65% of the population is under the age of 25, access to interpersonal CSE remains limited owing to sociocultural and structural barriers. This exposes young people to persistent socio-sanitary vulnerabilities. In this context, mobile health apps (MHAs) constitute a promising solution, supported by the growing use of smartphones among young Congolese. However, this group's intention to use MHAs for CSE has been the subject of little research to date. Objective The aim of this study was to identify predictors of intention to use MHAs among young Congolese, based on the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2). Methods A predictive correlational study was conducted in eight public secondary schools in Bukavu (DRC) with a stratified random sample of 859 students. Predictors of intention to use--performance expectancy (PE), effort expectancy (EE), social influence (SI), facilitating conditions (FC), and perceived risk (PR)--and moderators--age, gender, and past MHA experience--were measured from data collected through a self-administered UTAUT questionnaire. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were run on SPSS version 28. Results Mean age of participants was 16.3 years (SD = 1.5). Boys made up 55.1% of the sample. Overall, 51.0% of the sample owned a smartphone, of which 62.3% reported having easy access to mobile data and 16.2% were already using MHAs to learn about sexual health. Intention to use MHAs was positively influenced by PE ({beta} = 0.523, p < 0.001), EE ({beta} = 0.115, p < 0.001), and SI ({beta} = 0.113, p < 0.001). FC (p = 0.260) and PR (p = 0.631), however, had no significant influence. Age moderated all of the relationships tested (F (1, 849-854) = 9.97-20.82; p [&le;] 0.002), with more marked effects observed among younger participants 14-15 years old. The final model explained 44% of the variance, indicating good predictive power. Conclusion Intention to use digital CSE was explained primarily by PE, EE, and SI and moderated by age. To strengthen this intention, stakeholders will need to promote e-interventions that are pertinent, easy to use, socially valorized, and tailored to young people's needs and to the local context.

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Assessing The Feasibility of AI-Driven Systems for Early Detection of Infectious Diseases at Julius Nyerere International Airport, Tanzania: Policy, Infrastructure, and Ethical Considerations

Malingumu, E. E.; Badaga, I.; Kisendi, D. D.; Pierre Kabore, R. W.; Yeremon, O. G.; Mohamed, M. A.; He, Q.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350459 medRxiv
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This study evaluates the feasibility of implementing artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disease surveillance systems at Julius Nyerere International Airport (JNIA) in Tanzania, a key hub for regional and international travel. Through a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative interviews and quantitative surveys, the research assesses the infrastructure, human resource capacity, and regulatory frameworks necessary for AI integration. Findings indicate that while Port Health Officers are strongly optimistic about AIs potential to enhance disease detection, the airport faces significant barriers, including outdated infrastructure, insufficient technical resources, and a lack of trained personnel. Ethical and privacy concerns, particularly surrounding data security, also emerged as key challenges, compounded by limited public awareness and the socio-cultural acceptability of AI systems. Furthermore, the study identifies gaps in national policies and inter-agency coordination that hinder the effective implementation of AI technologies. The research concludes that while current conditions render AI adoption infeasible, strategic investments in infrastructure, workforce training, and policy development could pave the way for future integration, enhancing public health surveillance at JNIA and potentially other airports in low- and middle-income countries. This study contributes critical insights into the barriers and opportunities for AI-driven disease surveillance in low-resource settings, specifically focusing on a high-priority transit point, international airports. It emphasizes the importance of region-specific solutions to enhance health security in East Africa and supports the broader global health agenda by advocating for international collaboration and the development of scalable disease surveillance systems. Future research should explore pilot AI implementations at other airports to evaluate real-world challenges and refine AI systems for broader applicability, including cost-effectiveness analyses and integration of public perspectives on AI.